In the period from August 12 to 16, the Moscow Exchange Index fell by 0.71%, and the RTS Index - by 3.32%. The first benchmark closed the week at its lowest level since last June, the second - since last October.
The official dollar to ruble exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia rose by 1.04% over the week. "Perpetual" futures on USDRUB and EURRUB, which historically demonstrated the highest correlation with spot rates, added 1.70% and 3.15%, respectively.
The euro to dollar exchange rate on external platforms rose by about 1% over the week: this indicates that the correlation between the dynamics of EURUSD inside Russia and outside is preserved after the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, but at the same time does not look ideal, noted Konstantin Tserazov.
The CNYRUB spot rate on the Moscow Exchange has added 1.63% over the week.
The trading volume of shares from the Moscow Exchange Index amounted to 240 billion rubles over the week, which turned out to be the lowest value since the beginning of May. This may indicate that most of those who wanted to sell have already done so, and those who want to buy a large volume of cheaper securities have not yet appeared.
The absence of large buyers seems natural, given that the yield on “risk-free” assets, such as bank deposits/accounts and money market funds, significantly exceeds the dividend yield of the Russian stock market. Moreover, the gap may widen: money market indicators and the derivatives market indicate increased expectations that the Bank of Russia may continue to raise the key rate.
Four sectoral indices of the Moscow Exchange showed growth at the end of the week, six declined. The main outsider of the week was the Moscow Exchange Information Technology Index, which fell by 3.45%, and it also shows the weakest dynamics for the month, losing 7.23%.
IT company shares, as a rule, are growth stories, so when interest rates are low and the stock market is strong, these securities are valued by multiples significantly higher than companies from traditional sectors of the economy. Accordingly, during periods of high interest rates and general market weakness - like what we are experiencing now - IT company shares tend to show dynamics significantly worse than the market, noted Konstantin Tserazov.
In terms of news in the sector, we can note the transfer of ordinary shares of PJSC Astra Group to the "First Level" of listing on the Moscow Exchange. The company is one of the main beneficiaries of the import substitution trend and shows strong revenue dynamics ("shipments"). On August 27, Astra plans to present an IFRS report for the first half of 2024.
On August 19, Diasoft is scheduled to publish consolidated unaudited financial statements for the first quarter of 2024 (ended June 30, 2024). Last week, the company's Board of Directors recommended dividends for the first financial quarter of 2024 in the amount of RUB 472.5 million, or RUB 45 per share, added Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.
HeadHunter presented a strong report for Q2 2024. The company remains a beneficiary of the "hot" labor market, high interest rates that it earns on deposits, and reduced income tax expenses due to the application of a preferential rate for IT companies.
Softline presented strong financial results for the second quarter of 2024. The company is actively developing due to M&A transactions, which should lead to a significant increase in revenue this year, Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov sums up the results of the week.