Konstantin Tserazov: Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of Chinese currency
From September 2 to 6, the Moscow Exchange Index fell by 1.02%, while the RTS Index rose by 0.49%.
The CNYRUB spot rate on the Moscow Exchange jumped by 4.76% over the week, while it fell by about 0.3% on the interbank market. Against this background, the gap between them narrowed to about 1% against 6% the week before.
The sharp reduction in the spread between the yuan rates on the "toxic" exchange and "white" over-the-counter markets may be explained by the emergence of arbitrage opportunities between them, which were previously absent. At the same time, Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of Chinese currency, as a result of which the cost of secured loans in yuan (RUSFARCNY) reached 212% on Wednesday. However, the situation then normalized, and the indicator closed the week at 21%, said Konstantin Tserazov.
The heads of Sberbank and VTB, German Gref and Andrey Kostin, called on the Bank of Russia to somehow solve the problem of the shortage of yuan. The volume of the regulator's "currency swap" operations to sell yuan for rubles last week fluctuated in the range of CNY35 billion - CNY27 billion per day, i.e. the demand for the Chinese currency remained stably high.
The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro to the ruble, set by the Bank of Russia, fell by 1.5% and 1.04%, respectively, over the week. "Perpetual" futures on USDRUB and EURRUB, which historically demonstrated the highest correlation with spot rates, fell by 0.73% and 0.4%, respectively.
The euro to dollar exchange rate on external platforms rose by about 0.3% over the week: this indicates that the correlation between the dynamics of EURUSD inside Russia and outside remains after the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange. In addition, it has increased compared to the previous week.
In the first half of the week, the Moscow Exchange Index updated its annual minimums on fairly high trading volumes, but then sellers dried up, and Rosstat reported the first decrease in consumer prices this year on a n/n basis (-0.02%). This news supported both the shares of Russian companies and the bond market (the RGBI index added 1.54% by the end of the week).
Nevertheless, due to the drawdown at the beginning of the week, 8 out of 10 sectoral indices closed the week in the red, and the best dynamics were naturally shown by the Moscow Exchange Information Technology Index. Historically, shares of IT companies, whose business is characterized by high duration, do not show the best dynamics during periods of high interest rates, but then - as the monetary policy normalizes - they demonstrate outpacing growth. Thus, a small weekly deflation was enough for this sector to become a growth leader.
It is worth recalling that on September 20, shares of Yandex and Astra Group will be included in the calculation base of the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices, and the former will also be included in the calculation base of the blue chip index. This event should support these securities, since they will be purchased by specialized index funds, added Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.
Shares of Positive Group are trading 19% below their annual minimums, which creates interesting entry opportunities for long-term investors, given the rapid growth of the company's business.
The Diasoft Board of Directors recommended paying dividends for the first half of 2024 in the amount of 45 rubles per share. The shareholders' meeting on this issue will be held on September 11, and in case of a positive decision, September 19 will be the last day to buy securities for dividends.
On September 25, trading in shares of MKPAO HeadHunter is scheduled to begin on the Moscow Exchange (HeadHunter receipts have not been traded since August 12 due to redomiciliation/conversion). In terms of EV/EBITDA 2024 and P/E 2024, the company looks cheaper than most Russian IT companies, Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov sums up the week.